In 1972 the book “Limits to Growth” was published and sent out shock waves around the world1. It contained a warning that by the year 2100 the world might be on a collision course with catastrophe if then current rates of growth in such areas as resource use, industrial output, food production and population expansion continued on their then current course. This warning was the result of computer modeling of a variety of future scenarios, based on different assumptions concerning the future state of the world applied to the best data available regarding various growth parameters. A variety of measures of human welfare were also included. The computer model tested the results of different assumptions about the future state of the world with respect to population, resource use, etc in terms of the impact on human welfare. The only computer scenarios which indicated human welfare could be sustained were ones in which growth was reduced.
The authors of the study were attempting to point out the consequences of continued growth in population, resource use, pollution, and so on, based on then current trends. Their intent was to stimulate debate and discussion about how to plan for the projected overshoot of global carrying capacity which their modeling revealed. The concept of overshoot is similar to that of exceeding sustainable scale. Considerable debate did occur and the work was criticized as unscientific, inaccurate and overly pessimistic. It was largely ignored by policy makers who continued pursuing economic growth as a primary goal. Whenever the limits to growth argument came up as time passed it was denounced as proven wrong by the facts of continued growth.

Common criticisms of the limits to growth warnings were that technological innovation and market signals would allow growth to continue. It was argued that as resources became scarce their market prices would increase because of scarcity and this would reduce demand for them. Technological innovation would then find substitutes so that growth could continue.



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